“Current” does not represent one collection year across all layers. Some indicators use climate estimates covering a range of years; others use mapped hazard areas or supporting data collected at different times. The future layers labeled “2050” represent the periods or conditions described below.
| Extreme heat |
LOCA2 CA Hybrid climate projections using the high-emissions scenario SSP3-7.0. Indicators include days above 100°F and unusually hot nights. |
Climate estimates for 2015–2044. |
Climate estimates for 2045–2074. |
| Drought |
LOCA2 CA Hybrid summer temperature projections using SSP3-7.0, combined with water shortage vulnerability and indicators of water availability relative to population and cultivated land. |
Summer temperature estimates for 2015–2044, combined with supporting indicators. |
Summer temperature estimates for 2045–2074, combined with the same supporting indicators. |
| Flooding |
California Department of Water Resources Best Available Maps of floodplains, combined with LOCA2 CA Hybrid heavy-rainfall projections using SSP3-7.0. |
100-year floodplains, combined with rainfall estimates for 2015–2044. |
500-year floodplains, combined with rainfall estimates for 2045–2074. |
| Sea level rise |
California’s intermediate sea level rise scenario, using CoSMoS modeling and substitute NOAA and Delta Adapts data where needed. Indicators include coastal flooding, shallow groundwater, cliff retreat, and shoreline erosion. |
Modeled conditions with no additional sea level rise, generally including a 100-year storm. |
Approximately 0.8 feet of sea level rise, generally including a 100-year storm. Some substitute datasets use 1 foot; NOAA substitute data does not include the storm. |
Understanding the assumptions: The extreme heat, drought, and heavy-rainfall estimates use Localized Constructed Analogs, version 2, California Hybrid (LOCA2 CA Hybrid). This method translates global climate model results into more detailed estimates for California.
These estimates use Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 (SSP3-7.0), a possible future with high greenhouse gas emissions and limited international cooperation. It represents one possible pathway, rather than a prediction of what will happen.
Sea level rise follows California’s intermediate scenario, with approximately 0.8 feet of additional sea level rise by 2050. The layers primarily use the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to estimate coastal flooding, shallow groundwater, cliff retreat, and shoreline erosion. Where needed, the VCP supplements these estimates with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Delta Stewardship Council’s Delta Adapts assessment. Some substitute datasets use 1 foot of sea level rise as the closest available estimate. The modeled conditions generally include a 100-year storm, although NOAA substitute data does not include that storm.
For inland flooding, a 100-year flood has a 1% chance of occurring in any year, and a 500-year flood has a 0.2% chance. The VCP uses these mapped floodplains to represent current and future exposure, respectively. The future layer is not an exact prediction of where flooding will occur in 2050.
Social vulnerability data is not projected to 2050. Both time periods use the same social vulnerability data. The drought layers also retain the same supporting water shortage and water availability indicators in both periods.
Source: VCP Methods Report, October 2025, pages 17–27.